Okay, so I've written about Junior before, but I feel like I need to update this for the off season. In that two paragraph counterargument I advocated signing Junior this off season. Well, things have changed, and I would like to change my position. The Mariners absolutely should not sign Ken Griffey Junior this off season. Here is my reasoning:1. Griffey, 2008 version, may have been one of the worst regulars in major league baseball last year
I know when we think of Griffey in Seattle, we think of the Junior who hit the tape measure home runs and scored the winning run in the classic '95 series against the Yankees. That player no longer exists. Last year, Griffey was a player who underwent a total collapse offensively to add on to his atrocious defense. Junior's power is gone.
Last year, a mere 10.6% of his fly balls went over the fence, by far the lowest of his career and a huge decline from last year. For comparison, that is lower than the ratios of Keven Kouzmanoff and Edwin Encarnacion. Who thinks of those two as power bats? The HR/FB ratio is also a very good indicator of age, and there is plenty of reason to think that it would decline. Griffey has lost most of the power which made him famous.
His defense is also terrible, and the Mariners would almost certainly play him in the field. according to PMR, an advance defensive metric, 2008 Griffey over the course of a whole season would allow 13.5 more runs than the average right fielder, which is worse than Raul Ibanez was in left. And Raul was really, really bad.
Bottom line, I'm not saying that 2009 Griffey would be as bad as your average AAA player next year. I'm saying he would be WORSE than your average AAA player, especially if he plays the field at least part time.
Last year, a mere 10.6% of his fly balls went over the fence, by far the lowest of his career and a huge decline from last year. For comparison, that is lower than the ratios of Keven Kouzmanoff and Edwin Encarnacion. Who thinks of those two as power bats? The HR/FB ratio is also a very good indicator of age, and there is plenty of reason to think that it would decline. Griffey has lost most of the power which made him famous.
His defense is also terrible, and the Mariners would almost certainly play him in the field. according to PMR, an advance defensive metric, 2008 Griffey over the course of a whole season would allow 13.5 more runs than the average right fielder, which is worse than Raul Ibanez was in left. And Raul was really, really bad.
Bottom line, I'm not saying that 2009 Griffey would be as bad as your average AAA player next year. I'm saying he would be WORSE than your average AAA player, especially if he plays the field at least part time.
2. Now, knowing that Griffey would suck next year, is that really how we want to remember him?
Seattle sports fans had to deal with a situation like this last year. Shaun Alexander is the most accomplished running back in Seahawks history. However, he clearly aged past the point of usefulness last year, and Seahawks fans routinely booed him and called for his release. Now, eventually fans will forget about this, but how long will it take? I don't know. I don't want to go through the same thing with Griffey.
3. He wouldn't be worth the money.
I don't know how much money Griffey will eventually sign for, but as a veteran and a legend, I would be shocked if it were less than 5 million, and realistically about 7-8 million. Now, I think a team rebuilding could have many better uses for 5-10 million dollars, especially if the budget decreases, which it might.
4. If you really need your fix of '95 nostalgia, there's a much better option out there.
With all the fuss about Griffey, It may have been easy to miss Randy Johnson's situation. The 45 year old southpaw and the Diamondbacks have surprisingly been at odds on salary and have for all intents and purposes said goodbye. Here's the thing: last year, Johnson was one of the best pitchers in baseball. Yes, still.
After a few disappointing year with New York, The Big Unit has had a resurgence with his former team. His 2008 tRA (explanation here) was better than those of Johan Santana, Ervin Santana, Josh Beckett, Roy Oswalt, Cole Hamels, and so on.
Randy is still a very effective pitcher and could be had for something like 1 year, 12-15 million dollars. It has probably (hopefully) been long enough for the ownership and Randy to forget about their supposed issues. If we really need to go nostalgic, lets be smart about it. For the record, this is an official endorsement. Randy Johnson for the 2009 Rotation.
After a few disappointing year with New York, The Big Unit has had a resurgence with his former team. His 2008 tRA (explanation here) was better than those of Johan Santana, Ervin Santana, Josh Beckett, Roy Oswalt, Cole Hamels, and so on.
Randy is still a very effective pitcher and could be had for something like 1 year, 12-15 million dollars. It has probably (hopefully) been long enough for the ownership and Randy to forget about their supposed issues. If we really need to go nostalgic, lets be smart about it. For the record, this is an official endorsement. Randy Johnson for the 2009 Rotation.
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