| 19 January 2012
Harper Kamp and Jorge Gutierrez//The Associated Press
The Dawgs begin their most telling week of the season thus far against the California Golden Bears. UW, California and Stanford all sit atop the Pac-12 with just one loss apiece. The Huskies will not face either California or Stanford on the road this season, meaning that these next two games could be critical tiebreakers if the Huskies are in the mix for a regular season conference championship come March, as well as in seeding for the conference tournament.
The Basics:
7 p.m. PST. ROOT. Alaska Airlines Arena.
Washington Huskies (11-6; 4-1) University of California (15-4; 5-1)
|
G |
Abdul Gaddy |
6'3 |
G |
Justin Cobbs |
6'2 |
|
G |
Tony Wroten |
6'5 |
G |
Jorge Gutierrez |
6'3 |
|
G/F |
Terrence Ross |
6'6 |
G/F |
Allen Crabbe |
6'6 |
|
F |
Desmond Simmons |
6'7 |
F |
Harper Kamp |
6'8 |
|
C |
Aziz N'Diaye |
7'0 |
F |
David Kravish |
6'9 |
Breaking Down California
The Golden Bears are one of only two teams in the Pac-12 to receive a national ranking this season. Cal got as high as No. 20 before a 92-53 home drubbing at the hands of Missouri dropped them out of the top 25. The Golden Bears lost their only other game against a ranked opponent, falling to UNLV (No. 21 at the time) 85-68. Cal will be without one of their few effective big men, as 6-foot-10-inch sophomore Richard Solomon was recently kicked off the team for academic reasons. SCOUTING AND ANALYSIS AFTER THE JUMP!
California is led by their two seniors, Jorge Gutierrez and Harper Kamp, as well as sophomore scoring sensation Allen Crabbe. Gutierrez and Kamp are two of the few seniors in the Pac-12 who have received serious minutes for at least three years.
Crabbe, the reigning Pac-10 Freshman of the Year, has continued his rise through the Pac-12 ranks. His 15.7 points and 5.7 rebounds per game lead the team now that Solomon (6.2 rpg) has been dismissed.
The emergence of Minnesota transfer Justin Cobbs has been a huge bonus for Cal, averaging 12.9 points and a team-leading 4.9 assists per game. Cobbs is shooting 52 percent from the field, 58 percent from three and 81 percent from the line.
Mike Montgomery’s offense has been a model of efficiency this season, leading the Pac-12 in field goal percentage (48.7 percent), three-point field goal percentage (41.5 percent) and free throw percentage (74 percent). Their discipline is reflected in their play, as they lead the Pac-12 in assist-to-turnover ratio at 1.4.
California’s defense has allowed just 61 points per game in Pac-12 play this season. The Bears have struggled in their few road games this season, sitting at 2-3--they have given up 79 points per game in their last three road contests, getting a victory against Oregon and losing to UNLV and Oregon State.
Before Solomon's departure, Cal had seven players averaging over 18 minutes per game. Now, without Solomon's 18.2 minutes per game, depth becomes a question. Cal will need back-up forwards Richard Thurman (7.3 mpg) and Bak Bak (6.9 mpg) to try and fill Solomon’s shoes.
The Starting Five: Keys to the Game
Terrence Ross: C.J. Wilcox will be out for the game and it is up to Ross to step up his offensive play again. Ross played a marvelous second half against Washington State and almost single-handedly turned a 10-point deficit to a 10-point led in 12 minutes. His ability to take over a game is unrivaled in the Pac-12. He will likely see a heavy dose of Jorge Gutierrez, arguably the conference’s best perimeter defender.
The Battle on the Front Line: California has one effective forward in Harper Kamp and multiple big men with limited offensive ability. The Huskies do not have a consistent scoring threat at either the four or the five. Both of these teams have extremely talented guards, but which school's big men outperform the other could decide the game.
Attacking Cal’s Front Line: Cal is very thin without Solomon. This will be their first game without the 6-foot-10-inch sophomore and Cal’s back-up big men have had limited exposure this season. Look for UW to attempt to get the Golden Bears in foul trouble early.
Tempo: The Huskies have not been able to play at the tempo they have wanted since their home stand against the Oregon schools. California is very capable of slowing the game down and taking UW out of their rhythm.
Fast Start: It could be a very long night if UW comes out in the first half the way they did against Washington State. Cal is a good enough team to not let the Dawgs get away with such a poor offensive first half.
Prediction
The Huskies will not be able to win this game playing how they did against Washington State, as California is considered by some to be the class of the Pac-12.
UW will be adversely affected by the loss of C.J. Wilcox and need Tony Wroten and/or Ross to step up the scoring load. Abdul Gaddy’s shooting can’t be much worse than last Saturday’s performance and it will be necessary for the Dawgs to have outside threats.
IF the Dawgs are able to ride a wave of momentum following a potential season turning win against Wazzu, they will come out on top.
Disclaimer: I would not be surprised to see the inconsistent Huskies Thursday night, resulting in a Dawg’s loss.
Maybe I’m a homer, but Cal and their road woes are coming into Seattle at the wrong time and the Huskies squeak out a critical 75-72 victory.
